Recent weeks have seen a sharp and broad-based pullback across many favourite Australian technology names, driven largely by a crowded global tech unwind. Many domestic growth leaders such as Wisetech (-21%), Carsales (-8%), Xero (-20%), Megaport (-8%), Life360 (-21%) and Technology One (-22%) have corrected meaningfully. This has been triggered by heavy selling in the US technology complex, where positioning and leverage had become stretched. These drawdowns are not unusual for high-growth compounders, and in many cases represent a healthy reset rather than a deterioration in business quality. The moves have been exacerbated by concentrated fund-manager positioning and passive/ETF flows that amplify the exits when sentiment turns.
Domestically, the selloff should be viewed in the context of a reasonably stable macro backdrop. Despite the RBA’s absence of falling rates, underlying household spending, fiscal support and the lagged benefits of earlier rate cuts continue to cushion earnings. Tech is a small part of the ASX compared to the US, meaning domestic market resilience is still largely anchored in banks and miners. These are now genuinely attractive levels in several of the genuine long-term winners. We have been aggressively adding to Carsales and 360 and selectively adding to other wide-moat, high-quality, long duration SaaS/recurring revenue businesses where structural earnings growth remains intact and market dislocation provides entry points.
S&P ASX All Technology Index
Nvidia reported this morning (after market in the US) and delivered another absolute monster quarter – beating on every single line item, with revenue of ~US$57b (well ahead), margins intact, and importantly guided FY27 revenue growth to +54% y/y versus consensus +41%. Jensen was extremely bullish on the conference call, positioning Nvidia as the AI Infrastructure company, and confirming the three scaling laws remain firmly intact. The outlook deliberately assumes zero revenue from China yet still delivered that acceleration – extremely conservative and confidence-inspiring. Nvidia, on a standalone basis, has grown larger than the energy, materials, and real-estate sectors combined. It’s also bigger than the entire industrials sector.
After-hours the stock was up another +5%, adding roughly US$260–270 billion in market cap – that is AUD ~400 billion, or basically the combined market cap of BHP and Rio. This result is the exact opposite of the “beat-then-sell-off” scenario many thought might play out. Instead, it confirms insatiable AI infrastructure demand and should provide a powerful positive read-across to the entire growth/AI complex. Local tech names have been smashed this month purely on crowded positioning and passive flow capitulation – the Nvidia result materially improves the sentiment backdrop and increases the probability we see a sharp bounce in many of the quality Australian growth compounders from here.
Movements in the Nasdaq and Bitcoin often trade in lockstep because both are driven heavily by liquidity and investor confidence. Recently, liquidity has tightened as the Fed has turned more hawkish and the yen carry trade has unwound. Leverage across these markets remains significant, with many day traders operating on high margin, and Bitcoin has already fallen around 30% from its peak. Rather than trying to identify the next AI winner, the more reliable anchor is that the US government ultimately needs lower interest rates. If a short-term shock emerges in a highly levered system, liquidity will be supplied.
The second-order impacts are also clearer to forecast. AI-driven job losses and any slowdown in economic activity both point to easier policy settings. In that environment, the key beneficiaries of a highly indebted US government and the ongoing expansion of the AI ecosystem remain gold and uranium.
Gold remains a key thematic. Goldmans has just upgraded their gold forecast to hit $4,900 by the end of 2026, representing a gain of about 21%. The asset remains under-owned across both institutional and private wealth channels, and the combination of geopolitical uncertainty, de-dollarisation trends, elevated global debt levels and slowing growth keeps the skew firmly to the upside. Importantly, Australian producers are enjoying margin expansion even with higher operating costs, making the sector one of the strongest earnings upgrade stories in the market. We maintain a positive stance on gold allocations within diversified portfolios.
The Nvidia result has removed a major overhang for global growth sentiment, and when paired with recent gold upgrade, we now have two strong tailwinds heading into what is typically a supportive “Santa rally” period. Volatility is giving us outstanding opportunities to add to genuine quality, both globally and domestically. If AI disruption or a softer economy eventually weighs on growth, interest rates will need to move lower, which only strengthens the case for real assets like gold and uranium.
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